Apple’s Loaded Spring Event: Top 5 Analytical Takeaways

There’s plenty of news coverage on Apple’s spring event and even more hot takes produced within minutes of the broadcast’s end. This report assumes the reader knows the product news basics and focuses on key analysis.

Don’t Forget Purple iPhones

Much of the press attention focused on the iPad Pro, iMac, and AirTags, for good reason: they are major technical updates and an entirely new business for Apple. However, Apple’s most important product is still the iPhone, and it has been a while since the company used a mid-cycle colorway introduction to boost interest. This is an effective sales tactic, but competitors rarely do this because most have so many new phones launching each year that they would sooner offer a new model than update the color on an older one.

AirTags: What Kind of Business Is This?

For a quick market sizing, Tile is the current market leader for consumer tracking devices with 80% U.S. retail market share and has sold 30 million Tiles worldwide since 2014. As another analyst, Tim Bajarin pointed out in Forbes, Apple only needs to sell 35 million AirTags at $30 each to hit $1 billion in revenue. Even if Apple sells half that, the sleeves for the tags cost $35 each – and you’ll need one, because unlike Tile or Samsung’s SmartTags, there is no mounting hole on Apple’s design. (Cheap silicone sleeves from China will soon fix this problem with less style for a fraction of the price.)

As it often does, Apple is entering an established market late, applying software and ecosystem polish. While Tile’s trackers can do many of the same Bluetooth tricks and Samsung’s SmartTags Pro have similar UWB technology for ultra-precise positioning, Apple’s enormous installed base of iOS devices with Find My enabled means that there are more end points for a lost AirTag to reach out to.

AirTags will be an immediate hit. However, it remains to be seen if this is a long-term sustainable consumer business, an enterprise business, or mainly an embedded feature (many of Apple’s new devices already have UWB tracking built-in). With any other company, the enterprise aspect would be the most interesting, and I have already talked to some SMB IT managers who plan to buy AirTags in bulk for asset management. Apple’s software is not designed for this use case, so we’ll see how well that works. It’s certainly an opportunity for someone – perhaps Samsung, which has SmartTags Pro with a different ecosystem but essentially the same technical feature set. Samsung will also be forgiven if it advertises the fact that its UWB trackers were announced first and come with pre-drilled attach points – no sleeves necessary.

iPad Pro: Software Needed

This is not a new problem, but the latest upgrades to the iPad Pro hardware are so advanced that Apple will not realize the full value it has created unless it can significantly improve the software experience to take better advantage of it. Some of this is under Apple’s direct control – I certainly hope to see multi-tasking/workflow improvements and proper multi-monitor support in iPadOS at WWDC this year. However, some of this is outside Apple’s direct control, and requires third party developers to create iPad apps that justify the horsepower. What I do not expect is for Apple to merge iPadOS and MacOS, or allow MacOS to run on iPads. This misunderstands Apple’s platform differentiation, even as iPadOS grows in capability and each OS gets more cross-compatibility.

Given the technology included, iPad Pro pricing is, frankly, a bargain. The maximum configuration ends up at $2,880 once the keyboard and Pencil are included, but that spec includes 2 TB of storage, and is effectively a portable production studio.

This is the first iPad with 5G, using the same Qualcomm X55 modem found in the iPhone 12. While 5G on phones is mostly useful today for running SpeedTest checks and downloading OS updates, the speed improvements on midband 5G and mmWave networks are genuinely useful on big-screen, productivity-oriented computers. 5G-capable iPads also means that carriers are lined up to help sell them. Techsponential does not expect to see 5G on Macs until Apple’s own 5G modem is ready, but there is absolutely no technical reason for this position.

Reinventing the iMac

An update to the iMac was long overdue, and this one is a complete overhaul, inside and out. What would be a stark, sharp-edged minimalist design is instead perceived as delightful thanks to a generous application of color. The larger display, new processor, and industrial design would be enough to sell millions of units over time, but by emphasizing the updated webcam and speakers, Apple makes a compelling case for consumers still caught up in remote work and education to upgrade sooner. It is worth noting that while Apple is using some of the computational photography from its phones for the webcam, the imaging hardware itself is still a traditional webcam sensor. Apple has much better cameras that it could have used instead, and while Apple’s all-in-one value proposition remains unmatched, integrating full-on smartphone cameras in PCs remains an opportunity for competitors.

The new iMac only comes in a single, 24” size, suggesting that Apple is still somewhat cautious applying its M1 processor to Macs. Another possibility is that Apple is using screen size to simplify its product line, and larger iMacs will be Pro-only. In any case, the older Intel-based 27” iMac remains on the market for now.

Apple TV 4K and Siri Remote: Why, Exactly?

Apple is updating the Apple TV 4K with faster (but not the fastest) silicon, a nifty color correction feature that relies on an iPhone, and a much more usable remote control. Apple is also selling the new, usable, backwards-compatible Siri Remote control on its own for $60 if it can keep them in stock. However, the $180 - $200 box itself is still a hard sell: the remote alone costs more than a complete streaming media system from Roku, Amazon, or Google. That would be fine if Apple could articulate a reason for the higher price, but it hasn’t been able to do so – gaming isn’t a purchase driver, and Apple has not created an obviously better user experience. There is one area where Apple TV could clearly differentiate itself: privacy. Roku and Google players are so inexpensive in part because they are monetizing user data and serving ads. Apple has been pushing privacy-centric messaging in other areas, but it missed the opportunity to do so here.

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